This month’s update comes to you with a huge caveat and through vice-like, gritted teeth. It is the outcome of the battle between my eternal optimism and my reluctance to say anything that may be (mis)interpreted as enthusiasm for anyone who has been in Government over the last 15 years, or worse anyone who has been Prime Minister or President during that time, or worse still our current Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

THE CAVEAT: The following is prefaced by clarifying nothing in this article should be construed as good (or bad) about any political person nor has any bearing on any political allegiance(s) I may or may not have. I hope it’s always been clear these broadcasts are staunchly politically neutral and intend to stay that way.

With that said... read on!

🌱 GREEN SHOOTS IN THE PROPERTY MARKET

As we move fully into May 2025, the UK property market is showing promising signs of rejuvenation.

📉𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲

The Bank of England has cut the base rate from 4.5% to 4.25% this week, with further reductions expected later this year. Even the anticipation of this week’s change has already been influencing mortgage rates, with major lenders now offering fixed deals below 4%.

📈𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝗔𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲

In March, net mortgage borrowing surged by £12.96 billion—the highest since June 2021—as buyers moved swiftly ahead of stamp duty changes. While April saw a slight dip in house prices due to those tax adjustments, experts anticipate increased activity as summer approaches, supported by rising real incomes and falling mortgage rates.

🌍𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴

I don’t mean in the global financial markets. They are still suffering PTSD from the fallout of Liberation Day (although the UK markets had almost fully recovered even before we struck a deal with the US yesterday- see below).

Nor am I talking about gold, the ultimate safe haven asset and arguably at the opposite end of its cycle: deep into a long bull run and possibly peaking.

After gold, what’s the next best safe haven asset? That’s right: prime central London real estate, which is at last regaining appeal among international investors (particularly from the U.S. and Middle East), who are being drawn by the UK’s stability.

I KNOW IT'S UNCOUTH TO TALK ABOUT POLITICS BUT…

...in the current climate it’s pretty difficult to do a market update without at least mentioning it. And fortunately, circumstances are such that my eternal optimism and politics, at least for the UK, are in sync (kind of).

🥘Steel, Wheels & Curried Deals

While I can't claim to have portended the UK’s deal with the Trump Administration this week, my view for some time (as mentioned in my LinkedIn post last week) has been that the UK stands uniquely poised to be one of the few winners from recent Global Trumpanomics. Even before the UK's deal, the strength of the pound and the quick recovery of the FTSE100 were already bearing that out.

The UK is in a unique position: long-term allies of the US and particularly Trump who loves gold and his Scottish Granny, recently divorced from Europe (whom Trump seems to have a particular problem with), and as a service based economy not really exporting much Trump could tariff (apart from Rolls-Royce and whisky which trouble obviously loves).

It seemed clear, therefore, that the damage to Britain from Trump’s tariff mania was always going to be fairly limited, while other countries (including the self-harming USA itself) had far more to lose.

The speed of the deal has come as a pleasant surprise as has a deal with the world’s fifth largest economy, India. Nobody's perfect, especially in politics, but whatever one's political leaning (did I mention I'm neutral?), it's good to see the Government being directionally correct for what feels like the first time in a long time.

🦎Starmer Chameleon & Brand Britain’s (past) PR Problem

Sir Beer Korma has no shortage of nicknames, none of them flattering. As I hopefully made clear in the introduction, I’m not about to rush to Free Gear Keir's defence, but I do want to give him a new, more positive epithet.

Credit where credit’s due: the UK does now have new trade deals with both the US and India. Whether you chalk that up to circumstance or leadership is beside the point; the fact remains.

For too long, Britain has suffered a PR problem, a challenge it aptly shares with Keir Starmer the Farmer Harmer himself.

Our wonderful country has been beaten down and derided by the world’s media for years. And while some of it has been justified, compared to the global picture we’ve seen relatively little conflict, our education system remains excellent and our legal system is still the best in the world. Most importantly, in a turbulent world, the UK is a safe haven. It always has been.

Now that America has publicly humiliated itself (to our benefit) and the wind finally seems to be changing, it’s time we rebranded Britain and broadcast our safe haven appeal once more.

I’m not going to say "let’s make Britain great again", but I am going to suggest we embrace the turning tide. And while we’re at it, let’s also embrace the Prime Minister’s chameleonic prowess and rebrand him too. So in the spirit of shining a more positive light on the UK, let's welcome:

SIR STEER CALMER

Because what the world needs right now is a Britain with a leader who’s boring (check!), a political situation that’s stable and calm waters. A safe haven.

As it may not happen again for some time, while I’m talking positive about the Government I should mention I sat down with a developer this week who fed back positively about the current landscape on planning and how projects that previously had time horizons of years are now being fast-tracked to months. That should help with the supply problem and could really get the property market moving.

OPTIMISM: 1
RELUCTANCE TO TALK ABOUT POLITICS: NIL

In January, guided as usual by my eternal optimism, I posed the question: “could 2025 be the year we see the return of London Real Estate?”

Admittedly I’ve asked this same question every January in the post-pandemic era, but with the combination of declining interest rates, improving affordability, and growing confidence in the UK (versus shrinking confidence almost everywhere else), now may be an opportune time to engage with the UK property market.


PS. Look out for next month’s update when I’ll be talking all things RELIGION.
Just kidding.